Abstract

In this study, we compile a comprehensive time-series bottom-up dataset of heat rate and CO₂ emission at the electric generating unit (EGU) level for China’s power sector, and decompose contributions of various technological factors to CO₂ emission reduction. Results show that dramatic structural change and efficiency gain have reduced the national average CO₂ intensity of final electricity consumption from 983.3 g CO2/kWh in 1997 to 544.9 g CO2/kWh in 2022, cumulatively avoiding 15.8 billion tonnes of potential CO₂ emission. Fuel mix adjustment (38.3 %, 6055 Mt), heat rate decrease (35.0 %, 5527 Mt), and upsizing of EGUs (23.2 %, 3661 Mt) are the top three factors for CO₂ mitigation. Decomposition analysis based on the bottom-up dataset captures detailed technological and structural changesat the EGU level, enabling a more precise evaluation of the effects of alternative decarbonization policies. As potentialfor energy efficiency improvement of traditional coal-fired power generation is shrinking, future policies should focus on new areas of low-carbon retrofits.

Citation

Chao Zhang,Yujie Dong,Lijin Zhong,Haoqi Qian,Shuangtong Wang & Gang He.(2025).Avoided CO₂ emissions in China’s power sector by structural change and efficiency gain: An electric generating unit level analysis.Resources, Conservation & Recycling,223,108520-108520.https://doi.org/10.1016/J.RESCONREC.2025.108520.